Britt-Marii Pung

The exchange price of electricity has decreased to a reasonable level. Natural gas is more expensive than a few years ago, but still at a tolerable price compared to the past year. What energy prices will look like in the coming winter will largely depend on what the upcoming summer will be like.

Prices dropping to zero for a few hours last week does not mean that Europe has finally come out of the energy crisis. Although the launch of the Olkiluoto 3 nuclear power plant and the completion of new wind farms will bring some relief to our pricing area, winter may be difficult in the event of the worst scenario.

European countries are looking for ways to simultaneously increase the share of green energy and their energy self-sufficiency. Finland, which wants to have offshore wind farms with a total capacity of 6 GW by 2030, took a remarkable step.

The decision made over the weekend by the OPEC oil cartel to limit crude oil production caught the markets by surprise, and the oil price went up by 6% to 85 USD/bbl on Monday. According to analysts, if that decision is upheld, oil prices could go up to 110 USD/bbl by the end of the year. Such an increase in oil prices would inevitably lead to natural gas prices going up as well.

Russia’s energy war against Europe made Norway one of the most important gas suppliers in the region, expected to remain in this role for years to come. In the aftermath of the Nord Stream gas pipeline explosions in the fall, energy security will be taken to the next level as the critical energy infrastructure is going be guarded by NATO forces.

Due to the end of the heating season, windy weather and the high level of gas reserves, the electricity exchange price remains at a lower level than the Estonian universal service price. The production price for universal service is determined by the Competition Authority, while the component with the greatest impact is the high CO2 quota price.