Last winter served as a painful reminder to many Estonian families that the electricity market can change in an instant. When prices rose sharply in January and February, many consumers saw electricity invoices that were up to twice as high as usual. At the same time, thousands of customers turned to electricity sellers wishing to fix their electricity price. Unfortunately, this occurred at a time when the risks had already materialised and market prices were higher.
2026. January and February 2026 brought the highest prices seen on the Estonian electricity market in recent years, clearly demonstrating what electricity price risks mean in real life. With mild temperatures and windy weather in December, Estonian electricity prices remained favourable, even for winter. The monthly average price in Estonia stood at 7.37 cents/kWh excluding VAT. In January, however, the winds died down and freezing temperatures arrived.
Days when the average electricity price exceeded 20 cents per kilowatt-hour became a regular occurrence, with exchange prices rising significantly higher during hours of peak demand.
A double blow to winter invoices
As a result, consumers on exchange prices were struck by two blows at once during the first months of the year. Cold weather and more modest renewable energy generation drove electricity prices up, while hours with favourable prices were practically non-existent. At the same time, the prolonged cold spell increased electricity consumption in most households. Higher consumption, in turn, means a higher invoice. For several households, January and February brought costs that were several times higher compared to a standard winter month. The media also reported cases where the electricity invoices of larger households increased by hundreds of euros.
The arrival of the price shock also brought about a clear trend in consumer behaviour. As a rule, nearly 70% of domestic consumers decide to fix their electricity price before the winter period. We see a similar pattern with electricity packages every year. In January and February, however, thousands of customers turned to Enefit within a short period of time, wanting to fix their electricity price in the middle of winter.
This is a natural human response. When prices rise rapidly, people want to reduce their exposure to risk. The problem, however, lies in the fact that when high prices are already foreseeable, they are also reflected in the price of fixed packages. If the decision to fix the price is made in the midst of a price storm, the fixed price offered is, as a rule, higher than during a period when the risks were not yet priced into the market. In other words, it is worth buying a raincoat before the rain, not when you are already soaking wet.
A fixed package does not always mean more expensive electricity
One of the most common misconceptions is that a fixed package automatically means higher overall costs compared to an exchange package.
In practice, this is not necessarily the case. Last winter, fixed-price contracts concluded in autumn proved more favourable for many customers than the average exchange price across the winter months.
When choosing an electricity package, it is worth considering not only which option may turn out to be the cheapest, but also how comfortably the household can cope with potential price fluctuations.
It is important for customers to consider their risk tolerance and consumption habits. It is not possible to say definitively whether fixing the price or choosing an exchange package will ultimately result in lower costs, as this depends primarily on individual consumption patterns. For example, a household that consistently consumes the most electricity during peak-price periods in the morning and evening is quite likely to benefit from choosing a fixed price. A flexible consumer who takes advantage of lower-priced hours, on the other hand, may well beat a fixed price.
If stability in the family budget is essential and there is no desire to monitor daily price changes, a fixed price can provide the necessary peace of mind. If, however, consumption can be actively managed and the household is prepared to tolerate periods of higher prices and consequently higher invoices, particularly during the winter months, an exchange package may also be suitable.
One thing, however, is clear. Winter price risks do not arise overnight. When gas prices, water reserves, carbon allowances and weather conditions point to potential volatility, it is worth considering your electricity package options before the cold weather arrives.
Is it already too late to fix the price?
If price certainty and protection against potential winter price spikes are important to the customer, it is not yet too late to fix the price. There is no single ideal time to fix an electricity price, but generally speaking, the cost of hedging against risk is lower when market expectations for the future are more stable.
The prices offered for fixed packages depend largely on the period for which the price is fixed, as well as the price forecasts and risks for that period. As high gas prices, low water reserves in the Nordic countries and higher CO2 prices affect price forecasts for the coming winter, we are also seeing an increase in the prices of short-term fixed packages. Therefore, if a customer wishes to fix their price at a lower rate today, it is worth looking towards a longer price-fixing period.
No one can say with certainty today what the coming winter will bring or what the electricity exchange price will be in January and February. However, every consumer can decide how much risk they are willing to take. Last winter showed that the most difficult time to seek price certainty is when the price increase has already happened. It is therefore worth considering your options before the weather and the market deliver their next surprise.
If you need help choosing an electricity package, get in touch with us or read more about the fixed packages of Enefit.
